vmaitComputational Mathematics and Information TechnologiesComputational Mathematics and Information Technologies2587-8999Донской государственный технический университет10.23947/2587-8999-2020-1-2-94-100vmait-20Research ArticleСтатьиОб одной модели управления миграционными потокамиOne model of migration flows controlДаникЮ. Э.DanikYu. E.

Даник Юлия Эдуардовна, Кандидат физико-математических наук, научный сотрудник

Москва, ул. Вавилова 44/2

Yulia E. Danik, PhD. (Phys.-Math.), researcher

44/2 Vavilova str., Moscow

yuliadanik@gmail.comДмитриевМ. Г.DmitrievM. G.

Дмитриев Михаил Геннадьевич, Доктор физико-математических наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник

Москва, ул. Вавилова 44/2

Mikhail G. Dmitriev, Dr.Sci. (Phys.-Math.), professor, cheaf researcher

44/2 Vavilova str., Moscow

mdmitriev@mail.ruПрончеваО. Г.PronchevaO. G.

Прончева Ольга Геннадьевна, Кандидат физико-математических наук, ассистент

Долгопрудный, Институтский пер., 9

Olga G. Proncheva, PhD. (Phys.-Math.), assistant

9, Institutskiy per., Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region

olga.proncheva@gmail.comИнститут системного анализа ФИЦ ИУ РАНРоссияInstitute for Systems Analysis Federal Research Center «Computer Science and Control» of Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationМосковский физико-технический институт (национальный исследовательский университет)РоссияMoscow Institute of Physics and Technology (National Research University)Russian Federation2020200220234294100Copyright © Даник Ю.Э., Дмитриев М.Г., Прончева О.Г., 20232023Даник Ю.Э., Дмитриев М.Г., Прончева О.Г.Danik Y.E., Dmitriev M.G., Proncheva O.G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.cmit-journal.ru/jour/article/view/20

В работе приводится модель дискретной задачи оптимального управления с ограничениями, на которой обсуждается способ расчета миграционных потоков, где различаются квалифицированные и неквалифицированные работники. При этом критерий оптимальности связывается с достижением максимального выпуска при минимизации общей численности мигрантов. На одном сценарии приводятся численные расчеты, иллюстрирующие сценарий устойчивого роста в течение 10 летнего периода. Целями работы являлись разработка подхода к расчету необходимой численности миграции трудоспособного населения и ее составляющих для достижения оптимального роста выпуска. Предложена макромодель, представляющая собой задачу дискретного оптимального управления. Предложен алгоритм нахождения синтеза управлений. Проведено численное моделирование. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы в процессе планирования и управления миграционными потоками.

The paper presents a discrete optimal control problem with constraints on which a method for calculation of migration flows, where qualified and unskilled workers are distinguished, is discussed. At the same time, the optimality criterion in the problem is associated with the achievement of the maximum output with the minimization of the total number of migrants. Numerical calculations are provided that illustrate the sustainable growth scenario over a 10 year period. The work objectives included the development of an approach for calculating the necessary size of working-age population migration and its components to achieve optimal output growth. A macromodel is proposed, which is a discrete optimal control problem. An algorithm for the control synthesis is pro-posed. Numerical modeling is carried out. The obtained results can be used in migration flows planning and management processes.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.