vmaitComputational Mathematics and Information TechnologiesComputational Mathematics and Information Technologies2587-8999Донской государственный технический университет10.23947/2587-8999-2019-1-1-17-28vmait-40Research ArticleСтатьиПолитический онлайн-флэшмоб 632305222316434Online Political Flashmob: the Case of 632305222316434https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5244-8286ПетровАлександр Пхоун ЧжоPetrovAlexander P.

Петров Александр Пхоун Чжо, доктор физико-математических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник Института прикладной математики им. М.В. Келдыша РАН (РФ, г. Москва, Миусская пл., 4)

Petrov Alexander P., Dr.Sci. (Math), Leading Researcher at Keldysh Institute of AppliedMathematics (4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)

petrov.alexander.p@yandex.ruЛебедевСергей АлександровичLebedevSergei A.

Лебедев Сергей Александрович, аспирант Института прикладной математики им. М.В. Келдыша РАН (РФ, г. Москва, Миусская пл., 4)

Lebedev Sergei A., Postgraduate Student at Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (4,Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)

Институт прикладной математики им. М.В. Келдыша РАН (РФ, г. Москва, Миусская пл., 4)РоссияKeldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)Russian Federation2019240320233140Copyright © Петров А.P., Лебедев С.А., 20232023Петров А., Лебедев С.А.Petrov A.P., Lebedev S.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.cmit-journal.ru/jour/article/view/40

Предмет исследования. В статье рассматривается случай онлайн-флешмоба 63230522231643, который должен был продемонстрировать негодование российской оппозиции по поводу оспариваемых парламентских выборов 2011 года. Организаторы призвали всех полагавших, что выборы были сфальсифицированы, разместить указанное число в любом месте в Интернете, чтобы оно могло быть проиндексировано поисковыми системами. Идея заключалась в том, что это число вряд ли могло появиться в каком-либо другом контексте. Таким образом, используя количество страниц с данным числом, найденных поисковой системой Google, каждый желающий смог бы оценить размах негодования, который представлялся членами политической оппозиции как очень широкая. Однако флэшмоб не получил поддержки ни от одного крупного оппозиционного веб-ресурса, газеты или известного политика. В результате он мобилизовал лишь небольшое количество участников и не смог достичь своих политических целей. В то же время, флэшмоб представляет собой редкий примером распространения информации в так называемом разреженном мире. Другими словами, пользователи, чьи политические установки и готовность к онлайн-активности делают их доступными для участия, составляют социальную сеть с относительно небольшим количеством ребер, которая является подсетью более плотной и крупной сети. Методы. В статье представлены эмпирические данные о ежедневном количестве твитов, участвующих во флешмобе. Также построена математическая модель для описания динамики флешмоба в Твиттере и проведено сравнение результатов моделирования с эмпирическими данными. Результаты. Модель правильно представляет и объясняет некоторые важные особенности динамики флэшмоба. Для объяснения других особенностей требуется больший объем эмпирических данных, позволяющий построить и квантифицировать более сложную модель.

This paper considers the case of online flashmob 63230522231643, which was intended to show the indignation of Russian opposition to the contested parliamentary elections in 2011. The expression of indignation lasted for 47 days. The organizers called on all who believed that the elections had been rigged to enter the aforementioned number anywhere on the internet so that it could be indexed by search engines. The assumption was that the number could hardly be expected to appear in any context other than the flashmob. Thus, using the Google search engine and counting its appearances, anyone would be able to estimate the extent or severity of indignation, which was the political opposition members thought was as very widespread. However, the flashmob mobilized only a small number of participants and failed to achieve its political goals. At the same time, it turned out to be a rare example of the spread of information in a world that was sparse, that is, considering only those individuals whose political attitudes and dispositions to online activity made them available for participation, we get a social network with relatively few edges, which is a sub-network of a denser and larger network of users.Methods. The paper presents empirical data on the daily number of flashmob-related tweets and presents a mathematical model to describe the dynamics of a flashmob on Twitter and compare the results of modeling with empirical data for flashmob 63230522231643.Results. The model correctly represents and explains some important features of the dynamics of a flashmob. To explain the other features would require more a more complex model and building and verifying such a model would call for more abundant empirical data.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.