Modeling public attention to political events
https://doi.org/10.23947/2587-8999-2019-2-2-35-42
Abstract
The paper applies the model of decrease of public attention to a one-time political event to more empirical cases, namely the Presidential election in France in 2017 and the inauguration of Emmanuel Macron as the President of France. The number of search requests about a political event is taken as a measure of public attention to it. The theoretical model stems from a neurological scheme of decision-making. Individuals are supposed to be differentially pre-disposed to making web search requests about a certain political event such as referendum, election or coup d’etat. This attitude of making such requests reflects their general interest towards political matters and/or towards a given country etc. Media coverage during the event and the run-up to it enhances public attention to the event. This add-on is called a dynamical component of attention. The basic hypothesis is that an individual makes a web search request about a political event, if the sum of their attitude and dynamical component exceeds a certain threshold value. Over time, the dynamical component decreases and so does the daily number of requests. Empirical data have been obtained using Google Trends online service. It is shown that the model matches empirical data and public attention to a past one-time event decreases as a double-exponential function of time.
About the Authors
Alexander P. Mikhailov
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
(4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Mikhailov Alexander P., Dr.Sci. (Math), Main Researcher at Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
Alexander P. Petrov
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
(4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Petrov Alexander P., Dr.Sci. (Math), Leading Researcher at Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
Gennadiy B. Pronchev
Lomonosov Moscow State University
(Leninskiye Gory, 1, Building 33, Moscow, Russian Federation)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Pronchev Gennadiy B., Ph.D., Associate Professor at Department of Sociological Research Methodology, Lomonosov Moscow State University (Leninskiye Gory, 1, Building 33, Moscow, Russian Federation)
Olga G. Proncheva
Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology
(Institutskiy Pereulok, 9, Dolgoprudny, Russian Federation)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Proncheva Olga G., Ph.D. (Math), Assistant Professor at Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (Institutskiy Pereulok, 9, Dolgoprudny, Russian Federation)
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For citations:
Mikhailov A.P., Petrov A.P., Pronchev G.B., Proncheva O.G. Modeling public attention to political events. Computational Mathematics and Information Technologies. 2019;3(2). https://doi.org/10.23947/2587-8999-2019-2-2-35-42
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