Modeling the Effect of Political Polarization on the Outcome of Propaganda Battle
Abstract
The paper adds to the literature on propaganda wars. This area attracts practitioners as well as researchers from a variety of fields such as philosophy, social and political science, psychology. It also attracts IT researchers and mathematicians who develop and study models of propaganda wars. In this paper we apply the mathematical model of making choices by individuals to the problem of how the extent of social polarization affects the outcome of the propaganda battle. By the term “propaganda battle” we mean that each member of the society is subject to two competing flows of information. These two flows are generated by two competing parties and each flow consists of propaganda and rumor. That is each party runs propaganda via its own mass-media, and the rumor adds to propaganda as individuals get information from media and transmit it further through interpersonal communications with other individuals. The kind of society is considered which comprises two groups with diametrically opposite fundamental attitudes. The mathematical model has been investigated analytically and numerically. It is shown that moderate political polarization favors the side that runs more intensive propaganda. However, the advantage of stronger propaganda is impaired if the polarization is great enough, because neither media nor individuals can reassure their radical opponents.
Keywords
Supporting agencies: This research was supported by Russian foundation for Basic Research (projects 16-01-0100306, 17-01-01390)
About the Authors
Alexander P. Mikhailov
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
(4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Mikhailov Alexander P., Dr.Sci. (Math), professor, head of the Group Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
Alexander P. Petrov
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
(4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Petrov Alexander P., Dr.Sci. (Math), Leading Researcher Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
Olga G. Proncheva
Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics
(4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Proncheva Olga G., Postgraduate Student Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics (4, Miusskaya Sq., Moscow, Russian Federation)
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Mikhailov A.P., Petrov A.P., Proncheva O.G. Modeling the Effect of Political Polarization on the Outcome of Propaganda Battle. Computational Mathematics and Information Technologies. 2017;1(1).
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